ارائه سناریوهای پشتیبان سیاست‌گذاری مبتنی ‌بر رویکرد مطالعات آینده

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه سیاست فناوری و نوآوری، مرکز تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور، تهران، ایران.

2 کارشناس‌ارشد آینده‌پژوهی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

با وجود گذشت چهار دهه تعامل میان دو حوزه مطالعات آینده و سیاست‌گذاری، به دلیل عدم ایجاد پیوند مناسب میان مفاهیم و روش‌های این دو حوزه، همچنان از به‌کارگیری مطالعات آینده در فرآیند سیاست‌گذاری چشم‌پوشی می‌شود. این در حالی است که نقش مطالعات آینده به منظور اتخاذ سیاست‌های به‌روز و مناسب برای آینده‌های ناشناخته و دارای عدم‌قطعیت، امری انکارناپذیر است. از این‌رو، پژوهش حاضر، به دنبال ارائه رویکردی کاریردی‌‌ به منظور کاربست مطالعات آینده در سیاست‌گذاری در فضای واقعی و به دور از ایده‌آل‌گرایی است. برای نیل به این هدف، با تمرکز بر بهبود ارتباط میان مطالعات آینده و تحلیل سیاست، ابتدا با استفاده از مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای، یازده عامل شناسایی و سپس با استفاده از نظر گروه کانونی، هشت عامل اصلی تایید و بدیل‌های آن استخراج شد. در ادامه با استفاده از روش سناریونگاری و نرم‌افزار سناریوویزارد، چهار سناریو سازگار با اسامی «آینده‌شناسی»، «پیش‌بینی»، «آینده‌نگاری» و «آینده‌پژوهی» و هفت سناریوی بینابینی نزدیک به واقعیت با عناوین «آینده‌شناسی تفسیری»، «پیش‌بینی سری‌زمانی»، «پیش‌بینی علی و معلولی»، «پیش‌بینی قضاوتی»، «آینده‌نگاری مدل‌محور»، «آینده‌نگاری پویا» و «آینده‌نگاری باز» به دست آمد. این سناریوها، سیاست‌گذاران را قادر می‌سازند در مختصات‌های مختلف تصمیم‌گیری، تحلیل سیاست و سیاست‌گذاری دقیق‌تری انجام داده و راهبردهای خود را در مورد تهدیدها و فرصت‌های آینده بهبود دهند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Using Supportive Scenarios for Policy Making Based on Futures Studies

نویسندگان [English]

  • sahar Kousari 1
  • Maryam Hadavand 2
1 Faculty Member, Technology and Innovation Policy Department, National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP), Tehran, Iran
2 M.A., Futures Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

It has long been recognized that the role of futures studies in order to appropriate policies for unknown and uncertain futures is undeniable. But the weak link of this knowledge with policy-making is one of the biggest challenges that researchers face in the futures studies. Therefore, the current research seeks to provide a career approach in order to apply futures studies in the contextual environment. Since policy analysis is an important step in the policy-making process and on the other hand, based on reliable sources, not using futures studies in the policy-making process is due to the weak link between policy analysis and futures studies, so in this research, improving the link between futures studies and policy analysis is considered. In order to achieve this goal, using library studies, ten factors improving the link of futures studies and policy analysis were identified, and then, using the opinion of the focus group, eight main factors were confirmed and their alternatives were extracted. In the following, using the scenario planning method and scenario wizard software, four consistent  scenarios based on uncertainties: "type of view and judgment towards the future", "type of policy analysis", "conditions of the policy environment towards the future", "actors' approach towards the future" , "understanding the system in the face of future issues", "institutional conditions of openness to alternatives", "time focus" and "uncertainty level", with the names "Futurology", "Forecasting", "Foresight" and "Futures research" and Seven intermediate scenarios close to the real space were obtained with the titles of "Interpretive Futurology", "Time series Forecasting", "Cause & Effect Forecasting", "Judgmental Forecasting", "Model-Based Foresight", "Dynamic Foresight" and "Open Foresight". These scenarios enable policy makers to conduct more accurate policy analysis and policy analysis in different decision-making coordinates, and to improve their strategies regarding future threats and opportunities.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Policy Making
  • Policy Analysis
  • Futures Studies
  • Scenario Wizard

مراجع

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