Future-Oriented Researches and Its Roles in STI Policy Making

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, National Research Institiue for Science Policy (NRISP), Tehran, Iran

2 Expert Researcher, Boniad Tose'e Farda (BTF Institute), Tehran, Iran

Abstract

For decades, in public and private organizations, systematic plans for the future are being conducted at sectoral, regional and national levels, and in various realms of science, technology, innovation, culture, environment, etc., and, of course, the context and vision of these programs have been focused on the field of science and technology. Futures research are now an approach to public policy and private decision making in the policies of science and technology, and in many cases respond to the strategic questions of science and society in a long-term perspective. In order to improve the relationship between research in the field of the futures and policy-making, it should be explored the possibility of linking this research with policy analysis through the typology of uncertainties in order to determine what kind of future research should be undertaken? This paper introduces four levels of uncertainty including Level 1, futurology (deterministic Future), Level 2, forecasting (probable futures), Level 3, foresight (plausible futures) and Level 4, futures studies (possible futures) In the following, their definitions and logic of how to allocate methods to each of them, are described. Also, by centering on the policy cycle as the basis of the policy process, the future-oriented functions of each stage are presented, as well as the examples of methods that can be used at each stage of the policy cycle. This paper tries to introduce future-oriented research into the policy STI policy.
 
 

Keywords

References

[1] Boniad Tose'e Farda (BTF Institute). (2005). Technology foresight methodology. Tehran: Boniad Tose'e Farda (BTF Institute). {In Persian}.
[2] Malekifar, A. (2006). Forsight Bases. Tehran: Karane Elm. {In Persian}.
[3] van Dorsser, C., Walker, W. E., Taneja, P., & Marchau, V. A. (2018). Improving the link between the futures field and policymaking. Futures, 104, 75-84. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.05.004
[4] Walker, W. E., Lempert, R. J., & Kwakkel, J. H. (2016). Deep Uncertainty. Boston. MA: Springer.
[5] Molaee, M. (2014). The comparison between patterns futures research methods organization. foresigh, management and developement conference. Shiraz: The center of new educations. {In Persian}.
[6] Vinnari, M., & Tapio, P. (2012). Classification of Futures Research Methods and Concepts. Futures Conference, Turku.
[7] Aaltonen, M., & Barth, T. (2005). HOW TO MAKE SENSE OF THE FUTURE?. Journal of Futures Studies, 9(4), 45-60.
[8] Gordon, T. J., & Glenn, J. C. (2009). Environmental scanning. Futures research methodology—version, 3.
[9] Popper, R. (2008). How are foresight methods selected?. Foresight, 10(6), 62-89.
[10] Schartinger, D., & Weber, M. (2007, May). Experiences and practices of Technology Foresight in the European Region. In Paper for the UNIDO Expert Group Meeting, Vienna (Vol. 29, p. 30).
[11] Da Costa, O., Warnke, P., Cagnin, C., & Scapolo, F. (2008). The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20(3), 369-387.
[12] Sokolova, A., & Makarova, E. (2013). Integrated framework for evaluation of national foresight studies. In Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future (pp. 11-30). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
[13] Havas, A., Schartinger, D., & Weber, M. (2010). The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives. Research Evaluation, 19(2), 91-104.
[14] Attari, M., Taati, M., Alamdari, S., & Bahrami, M. (2016). Future research methodology. Tehran: Ruyesh. {In Persian}.
[15] Kousari, S., Ghazinoori, S., Saghafi, F., Amooabedini, G. (2016). The Desirable Scenario Development of Nanotechnology Societal Implication in Iran: a Morphologic Approach. Science and Technology Policy, 8(2), 1-15. {In Persian}.
[16] Faateh Raad, M., Kosari, S. (2012). Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology Based on the System's Dynamics Approach. Science and Technology Policy, 4(4), 77-91. {In Persian}.
[17] National foresight program. Retrieved 2019, from http://iranforesight.ir.
[18] Asef. (2014). National forsight program (preforsight). Tehran: Presidential Deputy for Science and Technology. {In Persian}.
Journal of Science and Technology Policy
Volume 12, Issue 2
June 2019
Pages 103-118

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics