ارزیابی آمیزه سیاست‌های توسعه فناوری نیروگاه‌های تجدیدپذیر در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار پژوهشکده مطالعات فناوری‌های نوین، سازمان پژوهش‌های علمی و صنعتی ایران، تهران

2 دانشجوی دکترای مدیریت تکنولوژی دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران.

چکیده

ظرفیت نیروگاه‌های تجدیدپذیر در انتهای سال 1400، حدود 933 مگاوات بوده که قریب به 750 مگاوات تنها در دهه 1390 نصب شده است. این مهم نشان‌ می‌دهد که در آمیزه ابزارهای سیاستی استفاده شده در توسعه این نوع از انرژی‌ها در دهه 90، نسبت به سال‌های گذشته، تغییراتی وجود دارد. برای شناسایی و تحلیل چنین پیامدی، در این تحقیق ابتدا با بررسی انواع و اقسام سیاست‌های تقنینی، ساختاری و ترویجی شامل قوانین مجلس، مصوبات هیأت وزیران و بخش‌نامه‌های دولتی، نوع سیاست‌های به کار برده شده تحلیل شده است. سپس «اثربخشی»، «کارایی» و «برابری» هر یک از سیاست‌های مورد استفاده به صورت مجزا و همچنین «سازگاری»، «انسجام»، «جامعیت»، «اعتبار» و «پایداری» آمیزه ابزارهای سیاستی مورد استفاده در هر دوره مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. این کار با استفاده از نظرسنجی از خبرگان مطرح و صاحب‌نظری صورت پذیرفته که عمدتاً بیش از 20 سال در این صنعت تخصص و تجربه دارند. در این تحقیق مشخص شد که از میان حدود 40 سیاست به کار برده شده در توسعه نیروگاه‌های تجدیدپذیر در ایران، سیاست‌های «عقد قرارداد خرید تضمینی بلندمدت 20 ساله»، «افزایش تعرفه خرید برق»، «اعلام نرخ‌های متفاوت برای فناوری‌های گوناگون در راستای توجیه‌پذیری اقتصادی»، «دریافت عوارض برق بابت تأمین مالی دولتی» و «تشکیل ساتبا»، بیشترین تأثیر را بر رشد نیروگاه‌های تجدیدپذیر در دهه 90 داشته‌اند. همچنین از میان 15 سیاست برتر در این حوزه، 13 سیاست‌های اقتصادی معطوف به بازار بوده‌اند. همچنین در دهه 90، آمیزه ابزارهای سیاستی بهبود نسبی نسبت به دوره‌های قبل داشته است.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the Policy Mix of Renewable Energy Development in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Moslem Mousavi Dorcheh 1
  • Hassan Karimian khuzani 2
1 Assistant Professor, Iranian Research Organization for Science and Technology (IROST), Tehran, Iran
2 PhD Candidate at Allameh Tabatabaei University,Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The installed capacity of renewable power plants at the end of 2021 was about 933 MW in Iran. Of these, about 750 MW were installed in the 2020s alone. This is indicative of changes in the policy mix of tools used in the development of this type of energy in this decade. To identify and analyze such an outcome, in this study, firstly, the type of policies used is analyzed by analysis the types of legislative, structural and promotional policies, including parliamentary laws, cabinet approvals and government regulations. Then, the "effectiveness", "efficiency" and "equity" of each of these policies used separately, as well as the "consistency", "coherence", "comprehensiveness", "credibility" and "stability" of the policy tools which used in each period has been evaluated. This has been done using a survey of prominent experts who mainly have more than 20 years of expertise and experience in this industry. In this study, it was found that among about 40 policies used for the development of renewable power plants in Iran, the policies of "concluding a 20-year long-term guaranteed power purchase agreement", "Feed in Tariffs", "announcing different rates for different technologies in order to justify it economically", "System Benefit Charge for government financing", and "formation of SATBA", had the greatest impact on the growth of renewable power plants in the 2020s. Also, among the top 15 policies in this area, 13 economic policies have been market-oriented. Also in the 2020s, the policy mix of instruments has improved relatively compared to previous periods. With regard to the approval of the document on the development of knowledge-based renewable energy at the national level and the prediction of various policies in it, and of course the implementation of some of them, such as the receipt of electricity fees to provide government financial resources for the purchase of electricity generation from the private sector and its repetition and modification for years After that, as well as the FIT mechanism as 20-year guaranteed PPA and the determine of different and attractive rates for power purchasing from private and foreign investors, and the improvement of the level of renewable energy development policies with the formation of SATBA, the comprehensiveness, compatibility, sustainability and coherence of these policies have improved. It is clear that this issue does not mean the existence of ideal policy conditions for the development of these renewable power plants, but it has improved compared to previous years.
 
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Policy Evaluation
  • Policy Mix
  • Energy Transition
  • Renewable Energy
  • Iran
[1] Rezaei, M., Boushehri, A., & BagheriMoghaddam, N. (2021). Factors Affecting the Development of Photovoltaic Technology Diffusion in Decentralized Electricity Generation in Iran. Journal of Energy Planning & Policy Research7(1), 169-214. {In Persian}.
[2] H. Amirinia, N. Bagheri moghaddam, S. H. Tabatabaeian, and S. M. Mohamadpour. (2016) “Functions of Technological Innovation System for Fuel Cell technology in Iran,” Public Policy, 2(2) 51–71. {In Persian}.
[3]           Abbasi Godarzi, A., & Maleki, A. (2017). Renewable Energy policy in IR Iran. Strategic Studies of public policy, 7(23), 159-174. {In Persian}.
[4] Monavariyan, A., Vatankhah Moghaddam, S., Hoseini, S., Ali, M., Vaezi, S. K., & Noorollahi, Y. (2020). Designing of Policy Making Model of Renewable Energy Development in IranPublic Policy, 6(2), 115-134. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2020.77616.
[5]           Soleimankhani, A. (2021). Identification of policy instruments for renewable energy development in iranArt of Green Management1(1), 73-86.doi: 10.30480/agm.2021.3048.1008.
[6]Rotmans, J., Kemp, R., & Van Asselt, M. (2001). More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policyForesight. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680110803003
[7]           D. A. Loorbach, “Transition Management; New mode of governance for sustainable development,” pp. 1–328, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0126-4
[8] Kemp, R., & Rotmans, J. (2005). The management of the co-evolution of technical, environmental and social systems. In Towards environmental innovation systems (pp. 33-55). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-27298-4_3
[9]. Bahn-Walkowiak, B., & Wilts, H. (2017). The institutional dimension of resource efficiency in a multi-level governance system—Implications for policy mix designEnergy research & social science33, 163-172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.09.021
[10]         T. Foxon and P. Pearson, “Overcoming barriers to innovation and diffusion of cleaner technologies: some features of a sustainable innovation policy regime,” J Clean Prod, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. S148–S161, Jan. 2008, doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2007.10.011.
[11]         T. S. Schmidt and S. Sewerin, “Measuring the temporal dynamics of policy mixes–An empirical analysis of renewable energy policy mixes’ balance and design features in nine countries,” Res Policy, vol. 48, no. 10, p. 103557, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2018.03.012
[12]         Ghazinoory, S. S., & Ghazinoori, S. S. (2008). Extracting strategies for modification of the national innovation system of Iran based on a comparative study. Journal of Science and Technology Policy, 1(1), 53-64.
[13]         R. H. Haveman, “Policy analysis and evaluation research after twenty years,” Policy Studies Journal, vol. 16, no. 2, p. 191, 1987. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541- 0072.1987.tb00775.x
[14]         H. Wollmann, “Policy evaluation and evaluation research,” in Handbook of public policy analysis, Routledge, 2017, pp. 419–428.
[15]         A. M., & Soltani and S. H. Tabatabaeian, “Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy Evaluation,” Journal of Science & Technology Policy, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 561–578, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://jstp.nrisp.ac.ir/article_13726.html{In Persian}
[16]         K. S. Rogge and K. Reichardt, “Policy mixes for sustainability transitions: An extended concept and framework for analysis,” Res Policy, vol. 45, no. 8, pp. 1620–1635, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2016.04.004
[17]         P. Lehmann, “Using a policy mix to combat climate change. An economic evaluation of policies in the German electricity sector,” 2010. https://www.osti.gov/etdeweb/biblio/21453627
[18]         P. Twomey, “Rationales for additional climate policy instruments under a carbon price.” SAGE Publications Sage UK: London, England, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1177/103530461202300102
[19]         F. C. Matthes, “Developing an ambitious climate policy mix with a focus on cap-and-trade schemes and complementary policies and measures,” Öko-Institut, Berlin, 2010.
[20]         I. Ring and C. Schröter-Schlaack, “Instrument mixes for biodiversity policies,” Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, 2011. http://policymix.nina.no
[21]         C. Nauwelaers et al., “Policy mixes for R&D in Europe,” European Commission–Directorate-General for Research, Maastricht, 2009.
[22]         I. Bache and M. Flinders, “Multi-level governance and the study of the British state,” Public Policy Adm, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 31–51, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1177/095207670401900103
[23]         K. S. Rogge and K. Reichardt, “Towards a more comprehensive policy mix conceptualization for environmental technological change: a literature synthesis,” Working paper sustainability and innovation, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/77924
[24]         K. Reichardt, S. O. Negro, K. S. Rogge, and M. P. Hekkert, “Analyzing interdependencies between policy mixes and technological innovation systems: The case of offshore wind in Germany,” Technol Forecast Soc Change, vol. 106, pp. 11–21, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.01.029
[25]         M. Porter, “Competitive strategy. New York: Free Press,” PorterCompetitive Strategy1980, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb025476
[26]         K. R. Andrews and D. K. David, The concept of corporate strategy, vol. 101. Irwin Homewood, IL, 1987.
[27]         P. del Rio et al., “Assessment criteria for identifying the main alternatives-Advantages and drawbacks, synergies and conflicts,” A report compiled within the project beyond2020 (work package 2), supported by the EACI of the European Commission within the “Intelligent Energy Europe” programme. CSIC, Madrid (Spain). Accessible at www. res-policybeyond2020. eu,
[28]         A. Mergoni and K. de Witte, “Policy evaluation and efficiency: a systematic literature review,” International transactions in operational research, vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 1337–1359, 2022.  
[29]         M. Harmelink, S. Joosen, and K. Blok, “The theory-based policy evaluation method applied to the ex-post evaluation of climate change policies in the built environment in the Netherlands,” 2005. https://www.osti.gov/etdeweb/biblio/20646768
[30]         F. Bourguignon, F. H. G. Ferreira, and M. Walton, “Equity, efficiency and inequality traps: A research agenda,” The Journal of Economic Inequality, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 235–256, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-006-9042-8
[31]         K. N. Robertson, Defining equity and addressing the social determinants of equity in international development evaluation. Western Michigan University, 2015. https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/dissertations/1195
[32]         N. Enzensberger, M. Wietschel, and O. Rentz, “Policy instruments fostering wind energy projects—a multi-perspective evaluation approach,” Energy Policy, vol. 30, no. 9, pp. 793–801, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(01)00139-2
[33]         J. I. Lewis and R. H. Wiser, “Fostering a renewable energy technology industry: An international comparison of wind industry policy support mechanisms,” Energy Policy, vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 1844–1857, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.06.005
[34]         H. Yi and R. C. Feiock, “Renewable energy politics: policy typologies, policy tools, and state deployment of renewables,” Policy Studies Journal, vol. 42, no. 3, pp. 391–415, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12066
[35]         A. L. van Dijk et al., “Renewable energy policies and market developments,” ECN, The Netherlands, 2003. http://www.ecn.nl/
[36]         P. B. IRENA, “Evaluating policies in support of the deployment of renewable power,” AbuDhabi,2012.https://www.irena.org/publications/2012/Oct/Evaluating-policies-in-support-of-the-deployment-of-renewable-power
[37]         J. Sawin and C. Flavin, “National policy instruments: Policy lessons for the advancement & diffusion of renewable energy technologies around the world,” Renewable Energy. A Global Review of Technologies, Policies and Markets, 2006.
[38]         P. del Río, “The dynamic efficiency of feed-in tariffs: The impact of different design elements,” Energy Policy, vol. 41, pp. 139–151, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.029
[39]         S. M. Mousavi Dorcheh, M. A. Ghanei Rad, H. Karimian, H. Zonouzizadeh, and N. Bagheri-Moghaddam, “Presenting a Framework for Describing the Technological Transitions Base on the Multilevel Analysis Approach (Case Study: The Transition to Renewable Energy in Iran),” Journal of Management Improvement, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 141–176, 2018, [Online]. www.behboodmodiriat.ir/article_69711.html. {In Persian}