چارچوب روشی آینده‌نگر برای پیش‌بینی شکست‌های نظام نوآوری فناورانه در فناوری‌های نوظهور: بهره‌گیری از استعاره مهندسی سیستم‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیارگروه مدیریت سیستم و علوم تصمیم، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

2 استاد گروه مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشیار گروه پژوهشی سیاست فناوری و نوآوری، موسسه تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور، تهران، ایران.

4 دانشجوی دکترای سیاست‌گذاری علم وفناوری، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

10.22034/jstp.2026.12319.2056

چکیده

نظریه نظام نوآوری فناورانه (TIS) چارچوبی کارآمد برای تبیین ساختار و کارکردهای فناوری‌های نوظهور است، اما ابزارهای تحلیل آن عمدتاً ماهیتی توصیفی و پسینی دارند و فاقد سازوکار عددی-احتمالاتی برای پیش‌بینی زنجیره شکست‌های کارکردی در مراحل اولیه شکل‌گیری نظام هستند.
هدف این پژوهش، توسعه یک چارچوب روش‌شناختی آینده‌نگر برای پیش‌بینی احتمالاتی-عددی شکست‌های کارکردی در نظام نوآوری فناوری‌های نوظهور است. بدین منظور، با اتکا بر استراتژی استعاره‌پژوهی، الگوی تحلیل کارکردی مهندسی سیستم‌ها (قلمرو مبدأ) به حوزه تحلیل شکست نظام نوآوری (قلمرو مقصد) نگاشت شد. در این راستا، ابزارهای نمودار جریان کارکردی (FFBD) و تحلیل درخت خطا (FTA) برای مدل‌سازی توالی کارکردها و مسیرهای بالقوه شکست به‌کار گرفته شدند. جهت صحت‌سنجی استعاره، یک پنل ۹ نفره از متخصصان روش‌شناسی، سیاست‌گذاری و مهندسی سیستم‌ها در دو فاز ناهمزمان و کارگاهی برگزار شد.
یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که ابزار تحلیل کارکردی مهندسی سیستم‌ها با تغییراتی در برخی مراحل و در تناسب با اقتضائات نرم یک نظام اجتماعی-فنی، قادر است وابستگی‌های کارکردی پنهان TIS را آشکار نموده و سناریوهای شکست سیستم را پیش‌بینی کند. این پژوهش با ارائه روشی قابل تعمیم و آینده‌نگر برای تحلیل شکست در فناوری‌های نوظهور، به ادبیات TIS افزوده و با توجه امکان شناسایی حالات شکست احتمالی سیستم به‌همراه شدت احتمال شکست، بینش‌های سیاستی ارزشمندی را برای طراحی مسیرهای نوآوری مقاوم‌تر فراهم می‌آورد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

A Prospective Methodological Framework for Predicting Technological Innovation System (TIS) Failures in Emerging Technologies: Using The Systems Engineering (SE) Metaphor

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Saghafi 1
  • Sepehr Ghazinoory 2
  • Naser Bagheri Moghaddam 3
  • MohammadAmin Fakhimi 4
1 Associate Professor, Department of System Management & Decision Science, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Information Technology Management, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Technology & Inoovation Policy, National Research Institute for Science Policy, Tehran, Iran
4 PhD candidate in Science and Technology Policy, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Irann
چکیده [English]

The theory of technological innovation system (TIS) is an efficient framework for explaining the structure and functions of emerging technologies, but its analysis tools are mainly descriptive and a posteriori in nature and lack a numerical-probability mechanism to predict the chain of functional failures in the early stages of system formation.The aim of this research is to develop a forward-looking methodological framework for probabilistic-numerical prediction of functional failures in the innovation system of emerging technologies. For this purpose, relying on the strategy of metaphorical research, the model of functional analysis of systems engineering (origin area) was mapped to the field of innovation system failure analysis (destination area). In this regard, functional flow diagram (FFBD) and fault tree analysis (FTA) tools were used to model the sequence of functions and potential failure paths. In order to validate the metaphor, a 9-member panel of experts in methodology, policy and systems engineering was held in two asynchronous and workshop phases.The findings of the research show that the functional analysis tool of systems engineering, with changes in some stages and in accordance with the soft requirements of a socio-technical system, is able to reveal the hidden functional dependencies of TIS and predict system failure scenarios. This research adds to the TIS literature by providing a generalizable and forward-looking method for failure analysis in emerging technologies, and by considering the possibility of identifying possible system failure states along with the severity of the failure probability, it provides valuable policy insights for designing more resilient innovation paths.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Technological Innovation System (TIS), Metaphor Research
  • Functional Analysis, Systemic Failure Prediction, Emerging Technologies, Functional Flow Block Diagram (FFBD)

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