تحلیل همگرایی سناریوهای آینده فناوری اطلاعات

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری سیاستگذاری علم‌وفنّاوری، دانشگاه تربیت‌مدرس، تهران، ایران.

2 استاد مهندسی فنّاوری‌اطلاعات، دانشگاه تربیت‌مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف از تحقیق حاضر، مطالعه، دسته‌‌بندی و تحلیل سناریوهای مختلف آینده فنّاوری‌‌اطلاعات و درک ارتباط میان این سناریوهاست. روش­تحقیق، عبارت است از  مرور پیشینه پژوهش از نوع فراترکیب و مقایسه بین سناریوهای آینده فنّاوری‌‌اطلاعات. تحلیل سناریوهای آینده فنّاوری‌‌اطلاعات نشان‌‌می‌‌دهد این سناریوها هرچند متأثر از تحوّلات اجتماعی و روند رشد فنّاوری‌‌های پردازشی و ارتباطاتی است اما تأثیر عمیقی بر تحوّلات اجتماعی دارد. از دیدگاه تأثیر فنّاوری‌‌اطلاعات بر تحوّلات اجتماعی، این سناریوها از سه منظر متفاوت، شامل «مردم»، «دولت» و «الگوهای توسعه»  ترسیم‌‌می‌‌شوند. این سه منظر، در سه دستگاه مختصات متفاوت با محورهای عدم‌‌قطعیتی که در وهله اول متفاوت به نظر‌‌می‌‌رسند، به توصیف سبک زندگی مردم، حکمرانی دولت و مسیر توسعه کشورها می‌‌پردازند. از کاوش متن سناریوها، فهرستی از ویژگی‌‌ها و آثار تحقق آنها به دست می‌‌آید. یافته‌‌ها حکایت از اشتراک در ابعاد عدم­قطعیت سه منظر یادشده دارد که منجر به تشکیل چارچوبی واحد از طریق انطباق تقریبی دستگاه‌‌های مختصات می‌‌شود. از مقایسه سناریوهای واقع در هر ربع این دستگاه مختصات واحد، نتیجه­می‌‌شود که به‌‌رغم تفاوت در بازیگران و نقش­آفرینان اصلی، این سناریوها، همپوشانی جدّی در ابعاد و تجسّم وضعیت مطلوب دارند  و نوعی همگرایی مفهومی در آثار آنها مشاهده‌‌می‌‌شود. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Convergence of the Information Technology Future Scenarios

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amir Khodadadi 1
  • Gholam Ali Montazer 2
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Information Technology Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Professor of Information Technology, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Reviewing The literature of the Information Technology (IT) future scenarios, four categories of research can be identified: one category is the researches that have studied the change in "people's lifestyle and work" due to the development of Information Technology, the second group has studied "governance changes" under the influence of IT, and the third category deals about the "impact of Information Technology on development". Unlike these three categories, some researches have studied the future of Information Technology affected by social changes. This article, studies and describes different IT future scenarios, and then groups and analyzes them in order to help understand the relationship between them. The research method is a kind of review called meta-analysis (qualitative systematic review) and comparison between IT future scenarios. Analysis of these scenarios shows that although they are influenced by social changes and impressed by the growth of the computational and communication technologies, they affect the social changes as well. From the view of social changes affected by IT, these scenarios are drawn from three points of view including "People", "Government" and "Development Models". These three points of view depict the lifestyles of the people, governance and countries' development path. Probing the scenarios, we found a list of characteristics and impacts of the scenarios. Findings show there is a unity between the uncertainties of the above-mentioned three points of view which leads to building a unit framework through the conformity of the coordinate devices. Comparison of the scenarios in each quarter of this unit coordinate device infers that despite the different actors, the ideal scenarios do coincide seriously in the dimensions and the ideal situation, so that there is a kind of conceptual convergence in their effects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Scenario Planning
  • Information Technology
  • Trends
  • Uncertainty Dimensions
  • Scenarios' Convergence

مراجع

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