Using Supportive Scenarios for Policy Making Based on Futures Studies

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Faculty Member, Technology and Innovation Policy Department, National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP), Tehran, Iran

2 M.A., Futures Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

It has long been recognized that the role of futures studies in order to appropriate policies for unknown and uncertain futures is undeniable. But the weak link of this knowledge with policy-making is one of the biggest challenges that researchers face in the futures studies. Therefore, the current research seeks to provide a career approach in order to apply futures studies in the contextual environment. Since policy analysis is an important step in the policy-making process and on the other hand, based on reliable sources, not using futures studies in the policy-making process is due to the weak link between policy analysis and futures studies, so in this research, improving the link between futures studies and policy analysis is considered. In order to achieve this goal, using library studies, ten factors improving the link of futures studies and policy analysis were identified, and then, using the opinion of the focus group, eight main factors were confirmed and their alternatives were extracted. In the following, using the scenario planning method and scenario wizard software, four consistent  scenarios based on uncertainties: "type of view and judgment towards the future", "type of policy analysis", "conditions of the policy environment towards the future", "actors' approach towards the future" , "understanding the system in the face of future issues", "institutional conditions of openness to alternatives", "time focus" and "uncertainty level", with the names "Futurology", "Forecasting", "Foresight" and "Futures research" and Seven intermediate scenarios close to the real space were obtained with the titles of "Interpretive Futurology", "Time series Forecasting", "Cause & Effect Forecasting", "Judgmental Forecasting", "Model-Based Foresight", "Dynamic Foresight" and "Open Foresight". These scenarios enable policy makers to conduct more accurate policy analysis and policy analysis in different decision-making coordinates, and to improve their strategies regarding future threats and opportunities.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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