دیده‌بانی و تحلیل روند فناوری‌های صنایع راهبردی؛ مطالعه موردی ریزپرنده‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری هوافضا، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران.

3 استادیار گروه فناوری و راهبرد، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران

4 کارشناس ارشد مدیریت، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران.

5 دکترای فیزیک، دانشگاه امیرکبیر، تهران

10.22034/jstp.2021.14.3.1298

چکیده

سرعت پیشرفت فناوری ریزپرنده‌ها حیرت‌آور بوده و به موازات توسعه این محصولات، کاربرد آن هم متنوع‌تر می‌شود. ارزان بودن و قابلیت مخفی‌شدن ریزپرنده‌ها منجر به افزایش کاربردهای نظامی مانند جاسوسی، جمع‌آوری اطلاعات، حملات انتحاری و... شده‌است. بنابراین ایران باید برای صیانت از امنیت آسمان خود، شناخت مناسبی از این فناوری داشته باشد. شناختِ روندِ فناوری‌هایِ آتی ریزپرنده‌ها، امکان ارتقای آگاهی و جلوگیری از غافلگیری را فراهم می‌کند. البته مشخص است که روند تغییرات فناوری ریزپرنده روبه‌رشد است ولی این‌که چه فناوری‌هایی باعث تسریع رشد خواهند شد و تغییر در کدام فناوری‌ها باعث ظهور تهدیدهای آینده می‌شود، اهمیت دارد. باتوجه به مطالب ذکرشده، هدف اصلی این مقاله شناسایی روندهای فناوری‌هایِ آتی ریزپرنده‌ها است. روش تحقیق مورد استفاده در آن از نوع «روش ترکیبی» است؛ فهرست اولیه روندها با رویکرد دیده‌بانی و به روش «مطالعه کتابخانه‌ای» تهیه شده و در جلسات خبرگانی متعدد، بررسی و ارتقا یافت. خبرگان تعیین‌شده 25 نفر از طراحان و مسئولین مرتبط با ریزپرنده‌ها بودند. برای تحلیل دقیق‌تر، از روش «تحلیل تاثیر بر روند» استفاده شده و نظرات خبرگان یادشده در قالب پرسشنامه جمع‌آوری و احتمال وقوع هر روند و میزان اهمیت آن در قالب «ماتریس اولویت مسائل» مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. نتایج نهایی نشانگر این بود که «افزایش سطوح هوشمندی و همکاری‌های جمعی بین ریزپرنده‌ها» مهمترین عوامل تاثیر گذار بر روند آتی ریزپرنده‌ها بوده و «افزایش مقاومت در برابر اقدامات آفندی» در رتبه دوم تحولات آتی این پرنده‌ها قرار دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Technology Scouting and Trend Analysis in Strategic Industries; The Case of Small UAV

نویسندگان [English]

  • Siamak Tahmasebi 1
  • Fatemeh Kiani 2
  • Farhad Nazarizadeh 3
  • Manuchehr Masoumi 4
  • Firooz Payervand 5
1 Ph.D. in Industrial Management, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2 Ph.D. Student of Aerospace, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Management and Industrial Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
4 M.s. in Management, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
5 Ph.D. in Physics, AmirKabir university, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The rapid development of Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology is astounding, and its applications are becoming more diverse as these products evolve. The cheapness and ability to hide Small UAV has led to an increase in military applications such as intelligence, attacks, and so on. Therefore, countries must have a proper knowledge of this technology to protect its sky security. Understanding the future technologies of small UAV will make it possible to raise awareness and prevent surprises. The main purpose of this article is to identify future trends in Small UAV technologies. The research method used in it is of the "combined method" type, in that the initial list of trends was prepared with the observation approach and the "library study" method and was reviewed and improved in several expert meetings. The designated experts were more than 20 designers and officials related to Small UAV. For a more accurate analysis, the method "Trend Impact Analysis Method" was used and the opinions of the mentioned experts were collected in the form of a questionnaire and the probability of occurrence of each process and its importance were analyzed in the form of "Issues-Priority Matrix". The final results showed that "increasing levels of intelligence and collective cooperation between Small UAV" is the most important future trend of small birds, and "increasing resistance to offensive attack" is in the second place in the future developments of these birds.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Small UAV
  • UAV
  • Technology Scouting
  • Trend

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