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تبيين بحران مالی 2008 ه مثابه آستانه چرخش پارادايميک در انقلاب فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات

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  • طاهره  میر عمادی

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  • طاهره  میر عمادی

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مقاله حاضر حاصل يك پژوهش كاربردي است كه طي آن كوشش شده تا در پرتو نظريه شومپتر- فريمن- پرز  دلايل بروز و اثرات بحران مالي- اعتباري 2008 تبيين گردد. مقاله در اين راستا، دو نتيجه گيري عمده بدست مي دهد: نخست اين كه بحران فعلي،  بازگشت عوارض به تعويق افتاده بحراني است كه حدود ده سال پيش در پي تركيدن حباب شركتهاي با فنآوري نوين موسوم به دات كام بوجود آمد و با سياستهاي آزادسازي اقتصادي موقتا ناپديد شد، دوم اينكه اين بحران با توجه به تاثير مخربي كه بر بنيادهاي اقتصادي گذاشته و  تغييراتي كه جريان  رويارويي با آن در سياستگذاريهاي كلان اقتصادي تاكنون ايجاد  شده ، نشان دهنده  چرخشي در  پارادايم فني-اقتصادي حاكم و گذار از مرحله استقرار به مرحله گسترش در چرخه انقلاب فنآوري اطلاعات و ارتباطات است. مقاله سپس بطور موجز به تاثير اين فرآيند  در حوزه کشورهاي درحال توسعه  مي پردازد و توضيح مي دهد كه چگونه تطويل بحران و اتخاذ سياستهاي آگاهانه در پاره اي از كشورهاي دير آغازيده به افزايش فرصت براي پركردن شكاف فنآوري اين كشورها انجاميد . اين مقاله با تاكيد بر اهميت شناخت قوانين تكامل و سير دَورانهاي چرخه انقلابهاي فنآوري در جريان  تدوين سياستگذاري در توسعه علوم و فنآوري به پايان مي رسد.

Explaining the 2008 Financial Crisis as an Example of Paradigm Shift in I T AWT-SEP تبيين بحران مالی 2008 ه مثابه آستانه چرخش پارادايميک در انقلاب فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات AWT-SEP This paper attempts to determine the reasons for and consequences of the 2008 Financial Crisis in the light of the Schumpeter-Freeman-Perez Theory. It posits that this crisis is a sign of the resurfacing of the symptoms of the that recession occurred in the aftermath of the so- called Dot com Bubble burst, which had been postponed by liberalized credit policies. Considering the damage it has already done to confidence in the economic rationale of current policies, this paper argues that it is a strong sign of a stylized transition from the installation period to the diffusion period in the long wave of the technological information and communication revolution and a consequent shift in the techno-economic paradigm. The paper finally focuses on the technological evolutions in developing counties and concludes that inappropriate policies to deal with the economic crisis in the center and appropriate measures and policies undertaken by some of late- comer countries on the periphery could prolong abnormally the window of opportunity to catch up with the industrialised world. This analysis shows how the theory of successive technological revolutions and a techno-economic theoretical framework could help in technological policy making. AWT-SEP AWT-SEP طاهره ميرعمادی AWT-SEP $Explaining the 2008 Financial Crisis as an Example of Paradigm Shift in I T AWT-SEP تبيين بحران مالی 2008 ه مثابه آستانه چرخش پارادايميک در انقلاب فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات AWT-SEP This paper attempts to determine the reasons for and consequences of the 2008 Financial Crisis in the light of the Schumpeter-Freeman-Perez Theory. It posits that this crisis is a sign of the resurfacing of the symptoms of the that recession occurred in the aftermath of the so- called Dot com Bubble burst, which had been postponed by liberalized credit policies. Considering the damage it has already done to confidence in the economic rationale of current policies, this paper argues that it is a strong sign of a stylized transition from the installation period to the diffusion period in the long wave of the technological information and communication revolution and a consequent shift in the techno-economic paradigm. The paper finally focuses on the technological evolutions in developing counties and concludes that inappropriate policies to deal with the economic crisis in the center and appropriate measures and policies undertaken by some of late- comer countries on the periphery could prolong abnormally the window of opportunity to catch up with the industrialised world. This analysis shows how the theory of successive technological revolutions and a techno-economic theoretical framework could help in technological policy making. AWT-SEP AWT-SEP طاهره ميرعمادی AWT-SEP AWT-SEP تبيين بحران مالی 2008 ه مثابه آستانه چرخش پارادايميک در انقلاب فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات AWT-SEP AWT-SEP AWT-SEP AWT-SEP AWT-SEP

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